Welcome Nigeria's Gilded Age...or is it? The Niger Delta Palace

Up there is not a Middle Eastern Palace, neither are you looking at something built in the Mediterrenean or Europe. That is Nigeria's own Niger Delta. Yes, that Niger Delta. Exclusively built by Israeli Architects, details about this monumental construction can be found here. My estimate is a cool $30 million to achieve this kind of feat..mind you, much of the accessories will be imported, aside from the very expensive expat brainpower that pulled this off.

Yes, it is that Niger Delta- the same one that is supposedly sorrow, blood and grief. Never mind the statistics that 70% of Nigerias live below the poverty line. We still have the richest man in Africa, and many more yet undeclared probably richer than him. If you're a lover or student of architecture like me, this is sugar high for you. If you're a social activist, you're probably miffed. In any case, the question is: will this set off competition of country home villas among our elites? Chances are before they're more likely to pull something regal in Lagos or Abuja, and reserve a simple building for their home villages. Well, the Gilded age is here!

Enjoy the video below..

The 4 Nigerian Economic Classes...

Okay, Nigerians complain a lot about lack of a middle class. But more interestingly, we might actually have a whole of lot of classes- just not in the middle. Here is my categorization of the different economic classes in Nigeria..tell me if I'm correct

Class 1 -The  Class of Contractors & Connected: Okay, if you belong to this class your last name is possibly Danjuma, Babangida, Obasanjo, Tukur , Gana, Maduekwe or Ojukwu. You get that contract and you don't even know what to do with it. You drive in big cars, nice houses and the oil wealth of Nigeria either via subsidy scam or otherwise flows into your pocket. Your family get a first stab at political appointments, concessions, contracts and import waivers. You subsist on the state and could care less if the rest of us are suffering. There is an emerging sub-category here, the folks closest to the oil in Niger Delta. You may also be one of those rising indigenous oil contractors. Your recent $30million oil vessel contract flows out of where you come from, and the militants that protect your community than what you actually know! That said, you're also politically exposed; your fortune rise and fall with the ebbs of power play. You are the 0.1%.

Class 2- The Tycoons: Okay, you are the true movers and shakers of this society. You are the one Class 1 rely on to get the job done, to cover their tracks if need be and to make this society at least work. There are three sub-categories here: the Inheritance Manager (yes, you the Dantatas, Abiola, Ibrus, Folawiyos, Igbinnedions and co). You owe your good fortune to Daddy, but got a great education along the way to inherit and manage this empire. The second sub-category are the hustlers. From nothing but with good fortune and friends, the sun is shining on you. You built that company from scratch..even when you didn't need. You're the Ovias, the Elumelus, the Dangote's. A third sub-category are the launderers. You built that empire using the money of Category 1 and smarts, and some good connection without putting yourself in harms' way. Well, need we mention Globacom and NICON. Enough said. Aside from occasional worrying of your asset being taken over by the  Class 1, or the inconvenience of kissing up to politicians- you're fine! You get that MOPOL plus some protection by the hungry journalists! You are the 0.9%

Class 3- The Biz Owner, Top Managers, Consultants and Gainfully Employed: Brother and Sister with a fine education, great upbringing in those years of yore and some smarts. You end up working with the Bank, Oil Company, media or telecom outfit. Great salary, great benefits, nice homes, good tidy savings and pretty contented. You can even afford the European Summer vacation, and top that- you get to sleep well at night! Aside from your occasional insecurity and strays of reminders from your Class 4 relatives that life is not all that your boss have built it up to be, you have very little to worry about.  If you're really lucky, you get that break into the Tycoon rank if one spoilt brat mismanages his father's empire. Oh well, your luck- their loss! A sub-category in this class that is often overlooked is the One man Consultant. Oh you miss him? he has 4 projects running at every time, no contracts, got his own website and brand and the Class 1 and 2 virtually depend on his big brains. No commitments though. He makes big bucks, but lives lightly...no dependable income means his savings are often bigger than his house. He runs that NGO, and he/she is the one the foreign donors always gravitate towards: they trust him..if he deserves it, is something else. He sometimes becomes the Personal Assistant/Special Adviser/Aide etc. to Class 1, or the CEO of the Class 2 Foundation or Non-Profit. Love that gig! You know him (Class 3 guys), he is your "rich, connected" Uncle that can land you that NYSC reposting, through his "friends". Third sub-category? even the relatively independent  business owner, small scale industry proprietor or emerging entrepreneur belong to this category (at least you write your own check, even if small) . You are the 24%!

Class 4: Unfortunately, you're the struggling class. You literally make anything between $1000 a month equivalent and nothing! You may be ungainfully employed (barely can your salary cover transport, talk less of rent). You depend on the largesse of brothers, uncles and relatives to survive. You have translated your job to a means of survival and you barely see the upward mobility to transition into other classes. If you're lucky- your current job is your best hope. You survive on bootlicking, being a yes-man and staying to the oft beaten path of complacency and conforming! Oh my, you live on less than $1 in some instance. You are the 75%.


So , where do you fall? What are your plans for moving up in Nigeria or staying up?

Nigeria Presidential Elections Results..LIVE Analysis as they come in

JONATHAN WINS!

With 44% of registered votes, being statistically equal  to the average turn out reporting, Jonathan convincingly leads polls with 59% of votes..and there is no way Buhari can make up for this deficit and he is therefore projected to win as at 2.00 PM CST. Congratulations Mr. President..now we have a nation to govern.

With 80% of states reporting, and 44% of registered voters counted...at 2.00 PM CST

Click to Enlarge Chart!

Old Notes & Analysis:

6.00 Some results from early states have begun to drip in..some few unusual figures noticed and analysis follows. Rig alert warnings will be inserted in busanga.com results, based on projections and analysis of pure raw figures. Figures are cross checked with independent sources and have not been confirmed by INEC.

8.00 Results in Abia is very suspect given the gap. It appears PDP will use the South East and South-South to build unholy advantages to counteract their inability to manipulate northern results. This appears to be the hidden game plan perfected since last week's National Assembly Elections. The 80% turnout also recorded in Abia state as opposed to the national average of 41% so far, is also very suspect. 

10.00 Trend has  been turnouts at 40% level of registered voters. This is low. Indeed, the South West & Edo/Kogi/Kwara region have been experiencing 30% turn out level, perhaps due to the dominant ACN party not fielding a strong presidential candidate and the fact that most South Westerners are essentially voting split ticket. This may be good and bad news for Goodluck Jonathan. It is definitely bad news for PDP in the upcoming elections for Governors upper Tuesday.  The higher than usual turnout in the South East is definitely indicating some manipulations going on. 

12.00 GEJ leads with about 2 million votes with the major population centers of Kano and Lagos (and other SW states) already reporting. Buhari will have to make up for votes with massive wins in Kaduna, Katsina, Niger, Zamfara and Kebbi (the remaining states of the NW- with the most  registered voters). Since SW has the second number of registered voters, and GEJ won here impressively, NW provides Buhari the only answer to the 2 million vote gap...before we head East. ANPP Shekarau can be the spoiler for Buhari in this region.

On heading East of Nigeria..splitting the nation into two (top to bottom), GEJ is sure to earn massive wins with most advantage coming from Delta, Rivers, Anambra, Cross Rivers and Bayelsa states. The first three being high population areas, where the opposition has little or no presence. Only Ribadu can be a petty spoiler in this region for Goodluck Jonathan. Indeed, Buhari will need to answer to respectable victories in the North East- failing which will mean he can kiss the presidency goodbye the third and last time. Ribadu can be the spoiler for Buhari in this region.

Still too EARLY to call as at 12PM CST on 04-17-2011. 


12.30 We can also confidently announce that based on the trend so far, it is unlikely the second requirement of 25% in 24 states will not be met by eventual winner. Hence, elections WILL NOT go to second round.

The Bottom Billion - High on Analysis, Low on Solutions

Paul Collier's book had come highly recommended; hence I shelved other interesting books on my list for his book. The bottom billion focuses on the critical elements that make the poorest countries (mostly in Africa, or called Africa +)  in the world, really poor. The onion was not identifying the problems, which most authors do very well. It was Paul's ability to back up the reasons with data that makes this book special.

Working both as a World Bank researcher, and Oxford professor: his access to a wealth of data came in handy in making both objective and subjective extrapolations that formed the nucleus of the book. Some interesting anecdotes like "Natural Resources make a poor country more prone to civil war, while Aid makes them more prone to military coups" makes for an  insightful read. 


His thesis surrounds the theory of traps. That poor countries are caught in one or more traps at any given point, which by virtue of their existence is either intrinsic or endemic. He suggests external pressure to break off these traps..or rather external action (more on why that is unlikely to happen). The traps he constructed were those of being landlocked, conflict trap, natural resource trap and bad governance in a small country. But even these traps are perfunctory to insiders. In the end, the only trap that exists is a uneducated (or mis-educated) citizenry governed by bad leaders! Basically- top-down decay!


Paul's preferred solutions as usual (like Dambisa Moyo's) assumes the best intentions of Western governments. Asking others to help the bottom billion..good luck with that. The book is high on what the electorate, institutions and government of the West can do for the bottom billion but low on what citizens of the bottom billion can do for themselves. In many cases, it gave up on the people. Assuming for example that being landlocked is a dead end by saying "that is the way it already is; there is nothing we can do about that". How about merging with other nations to forming "super-countries" under federated jurisdiction that can survive and stop depending on Western Aid? Paul put the real solution away from the problem by assuming it is fait accompli. 


I figure if this were such a problem (as clearly it is), most Western countries can actually stop aid to landlocked nations and condition resumption on amalgamation to sensible political units where the rights of the constituent countries to self governance is respected. The cost of multiple institutions, security and borders to tiny African nations is so high it makes no sense that the aid industry is not pushing for such radical solutions yet. Well, not until you realize it is easier to push tiny nations around in the General Assembly of the UN than big ones. So guess what? The West like your tiny countries that depend on them. Call it the aid paradox. The donors like to give, to keep the receivers where they are. 


Some of Paul's recommendation about having charters, and laws as far I can tell are merely academic and does not pass practical muster. Providing support to dissidents and reformists in countries like Tunisia and Egypt work better than deploying troops. And by the way, Paul was wrong about British intervention in Sierra Leone. That was the work of Nigeria's Army...the British only came to take the glory after the hard work was done. So it is hardly a model for military intervention. He should have also talked to ECOMOG and UNASMIL on the true cost of that misadventure.

In the end, the poorest countries of the world mostly in Africa can do better for themselves by:

• Reforming governance as a true contract between good leaders and the people
• Prioritizing need, and agglomerating aid, resource rents and investments to achieve them
• Eschewing highly competitive elections, to public financed moderated ones
• Move towards mega-sizing, intra-country trade and resolve internal cohesion questions by federating
• Focus on innovation and entrepreneurship ; empowering the people with market education

The West, their corporations & their citizens of the big rich countries can:

• Encourage the plan above by putting their money where their mouth is (like supporting dissidents, redirecting/reforming aid mechanisms to meet real local need like public financed elections & condition other aid on leaving the dead end of being landlocked by entering regional blocs or amalgamating) 
• Discourage anything that negates the above (like receiving stolen money, bribing to get resource access, absorbing skilled labor from poorest countries, undermining popular governments in self interest or subsidizing agriculture in their countries) 

I came away after reading this book (and promising myself not to pick up Paul Sach's book or that of William Easterly..similar types) convinced that Africans are the only ones that can truly solve their own problems. Of course outside support is welcome, but in the end- we must be tired of being poor and push for a better Africa. Truly:

"When Africa's Problems are analyzed in a book from the point of view of an all powerful Western Interventionist, from the point of view of what western readers can do for the basket case called Africa, rather than what Africans can do for themselves: then it is always nearly the case that the author gets the problem analysis right (they all do), but fail miserably in prescribing the right solutions."

That was yours sincerely...