JONATHAN WINS!
With 44% of registered votes, being statistically equal to the average turn out reporting, Jonathan convincingly leads polls with 59% of votes..and there is no way Buhari can make up for this deficit and he is therefore projected to win as at 2.00 PM CST. Congratulations Mr. President..now we have a nation to govern.
With 80% of states reporting, and 44% of registered voters counted...at 2.00 PM CST
Old Notes & Analysis:
6.00 Some results from early states have begun to drip in..some few unusual figures noticed and analysis follows. Rig alert warnings will be inserted in busanga.com results, based on projections and analysis of pure raw figures. Figures are cross checked with independent sources and have not been confirmed by INEC.
8.00 Results in Abia is very suspect given the gap. It appears PDP will use the South East and South-South to build unholy advantages to counteract their inability to manipulate northern results. This appears to be the hidden game plan perfected since last week's National Assembly Elections. The 80% turnout also recorded in Abia state as opposed to the national average of 41% so far, is also very suspect.
10.00 Trend has been turnouts at 40% level of registered voters. This is low. Indeed, the South West & Edo/Kogi/Kwara region have been experiencing 30% turn out level, perhaps due to the dominant ACN party not fielding a strong presidential candidate and the fact that most South Westerners are essentially voting split ticket. This may be good and bad news for Goodluck Jonathan. It is definitely bad news for PDP in the upcoming elections for Governors upper Tuesday. The higher than usual turnout in the South East is definitely indicating some manipulations going on.
12.00 GEJ leads with about 2 million votes with the major population centers of Kano and Lagos (and other SW states) already reporting. Buhari will have to make up for votes with massive wins in Kaduna, Katsina, Niger, Zamfara and Kebbi (the remaining states of the NW- with the most registered voters). Since SW has the second number of registered voters, and GEJ won here impressively, NW provides Buhari the only answer to the 2 million vote gap...before we head East. ANPP Shekarau can be the spoiler for Buhari in this region.
On heading East of Nigeria..splitting the nation into two (top to bottom), GEJ is sure to earn massive wins with most advantage coming from Delta, Rivers, Anambra, Cross Rivers and Bayelsa states. The first three being high population areas, where the opposition has little or no presence. Only Ribadu can be a petty spoiler in this region for Goodluck Jonathan. Indeed, Buhari will need to answer to respectable victories in the North East- failing which will mean he can kiss the presidency goodbye the third and last time. Ribadu can be the spoiler for Buhari in this region.
Still too EARLY to call as at 12PM CST on 04-17-2011.
12.30 We can also confidently announce that based on the trend so far, it is unlikely the second requirement of 25% in 24 states will not be met by eventual winner. Hence, elections WILL NOT go to second round.
With 44% of registered votes, being statistically equal to the average turn out reporting, Jonathan convincingly leads polls with 59% of votes..and there is no way Buhari can make up for this deficit and he is therefore projected to win as at 2.00 PM CST. Congratulations Mr. President..now we have a nation to govern.
With 80% of states reporting, and 44% of registered voters counted...at 2.00 PM CST
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| Click to Enlarge Chart! |
Old Notes & Analysis:
6.00 Some results from early states have begun to drip in..some few unusual figures noticed and analysis follows. Rig alert warnings will be inserted in busanga.com results, based on projections and analysis of pure raw figures. Figures are cross checked with independent sources and have not been confirmed by INEC.
8.00 Results in Abia is very suspect given the gap. It appears PDP will use the South East and South-South to build unholy advantages to counteract their inability to manipulate northern results. This appears to be the hidden game plan perfected since last week's National Assembly Elections. The 80% turnout also recorded in Abia state as opposed to the national average of 41% so far, is also very suspect.
10.00 Trend has been turnouts at 40% level of registered voters. This is low. Indeed, the South West & Edo/Kogi/Kwara region have been experiencing 30% turn out level, perhaps due to the dominant ACN party not fielding a strong presidential candidate and the fact that most South Westerners are essentially voting split ticket. This may be good and bad news for Goodluck Jonathan. It is definitely bad news for PDP in the upcoming elections for Governors upper Tuesday. The higher than usual turnout in the South East is definitely indicating some manipulations going on.
12.00 GEJ leads with about 2 million votes with the major population centers of Kano and Lagos (and other SW states) already reporting. Buhari will have to make up for votes with massive wins in Kaduna, Katsina, Niger, Zamfara and Kebbi (the remaining states of the NW- with the most registered voters). Since SW has the second number of registered voters, and GEJ won here impressively, NW provides Buhari the only answer to the 2 million vote gap...before we head East. ANPP Shekarau can be the spoiler for Buhari in this region.
On heading East of Nigeria..splitting the nation into two (top to bottom), GEJ is sure to earn massive wins with most advantage coming from Delta, Rivers, Anambra, Cross Rivers and Bayelsa states. The first three being high population areas, where the opposition has little or no presence. Only Ribadu can be a petty spoiler in this region for Goodluck Jonathan. Indeed, Buhari will need to answer to respectable victories in the North East- failing which will mean he can kiss the presidency goodbye the third and last time. Ribadu can be the spoiler for Buhari in this region.
Still too EARLY to call as at 12PM CST on 04-17-2011.
12.30 We can also confidently announce that based on the trend so far, it is unlikely the second requirement of 25% in 24 states will not be met by eventual winner. Hence, elections WILL NOT go to second round.
