Monday, October 27, 2014

Previewing the Mid-Terms 2014 & US Senate Outcomes

2014 is not a wave election, and both GOP and Dems should be very afraid going to the last stretch. Unless we get some major October surprise, upper Tuesday may be a major surprise for either major is why: prediction for Midterm 2014 - Balance of US Senate

1. Despite what you hear in the media, GOP is not closing. Many races still remain in the air, and more traditional red states like Kansas and Georgia, previously not in play are now coming into play. Coming at the last minute with Ebola and ISIS in the news and all the advantage, this is not good for GOP. 

2. Incumbents be it Democrats (in Arkansas and Colorado) or Republicans (in Kentucky and  are in trouble. This means the GOP must defend and attack simultaneously.  This is reflected in races where incumbents are running, and no one is getting 51%. Question on all inquiring minds are, who will the undecided voters break for and will they even show up?

3. Major party brand is in shambles, and voters don't want to reward GOP partisanship. This is why Independent candidates are having impact from NC to Alaska.

4. Governor races matter; the Governor race in Colorado may save the Senate for them there; this is also true for Kansas where the republican incumbent had overreached. In Georgia as well, the son of President Carter may win the race and help Nunn remain competitive for a run-off.

5. The poll may be over-estimating likely voters, as the GOP assumes it has intensity and there is no concrete evidence from 1 through 4 above that shows this. Early ballot, superior game by the Dems on ground and the mountain of evidence that the voters are not in the mood to reward GOP points to a surprise outcome in many close races.

6. This said, the Obama brand is killing democrats in Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana and even Gubernatorial races in Connecticut and Massachusetts. So while the Dems have hope, the overwhelming mood of the country is to send a message to the President.

So what will happen on Tuesday, and what should you be watching for?

1. Outcome indicators? Sharp political analysts always like to select odd number of bellwether states to use as predictor of the night. My three states are Iowa, Colorado and Kansas. Whoever wins two of the three will win the night, with Independent win in Kansas counting for the Dems.

2. No Decision? This is particularly so, because two states will DEFINITELY end the night UNDECIDED. There is a requirement for 50+1 in both Louisiana and Georgia. While both states have been challenging for Dems historically, the GOP have bad candidates there and the black votes is carrying the Dems to postpone the decision day. I expect a split outcome if the Dems triumph under scenario one above (Louisiana will like to keep a committee chair in place) and a one sided decision in favor of GOP if the GOP win two of my 3 bellwether state. Hence why my 3 picks above matter.

3. Long Night Indicator? Well, if the Dems can't keep North Carolina or have it called for them early to mid-way of the night, then a terrible tragedy have befallen them. If the GOP don't have Kentucky called for them early, then they should forget their dreams of majority in the Senate.


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