2025 Was not for Blogging..2026 May Be

Written on January 1, 2026

It is the first day of the second quarter of the 21st Century. Hello world! 

2025 was an interesting year in the sense of new restarts. It was the year things started were ended and new things restarted. 

For me it was professionally significant as it marked the twentieth year of post-graduation career, which also saw my emergence on the exact anniversary of that graduation as a Fellow of the Nigerian Society of Engineers. This was extremely fulfilling. Now we are called to mentor younger engineers- deliberately. 

Travel- As you all know, my love for traveling can never diminish. Top new countries visited in 2025? Monaco, Croatia, Benin Republic   and Sierra Leone, where I’m blogging presently as I spent the last days of the year here.

Why Sierra Leone? Well I have familial connections because my sister despite haven never  visited here, is married to a native of this land for almost 17 years. They’re genuinely warm and affectionate people in all my dealings with them and further proven since I have visited. But much leaves to be desired in terms of converting their potential as a small country compared to say Benin Republic, Nigeria’s   Closest neighbour we just rescued from the jaws of a military coup that seems to have taken some page off the books of Rwanda the efficiently run patriotic autocratic state, and say Monaco that tiny principality of France where I smoked the most expensive Shisha (Hookah) in the world at $250. Gracious!

Books- as for 2025 and Books, favorite literature was the book My Nigeria, I re-read Straight to Hell memoirs of a Walk Street Junkie and read after so much postponement the memoirs of  Rtd Major Debo Basorun’s Book- Honour for Sale,  about working with the Evil Genius, which contrasted with IBB’s book ironically named  “A Journey In Service “ . It was interesting reading Major Debo's book with my dad;s version and all his markings. Though gone nine years now, it is crazy how we read alike an his thoughts could easily have been mine! Insight. Legacy.

...and of course African Ngenuity written about yours sincerely and our work at LoftyInc Group. 

You should pick the book. It has a significant part of 18 years of my 20 years professional journey focused on the world of my business of pioneering innovation across Africa. Worth the read 

National Front- after the urgent national assignment, it is the season of deep networking. As we take stock of what we have built and we see the National economy on a more modern footing, 2026 has to be the year of positioning for growth. Electorally, the field of contest is open this new year but one must also focus on positioning than ever. A word is enough for the wise.

Africa Economic Outlook- Key markets continue to look interesting. Nigeria. Egypt. Kenya. Francophone. Took it on the chin in the last couple of years as they undertook painful orthodox market reforms. Time to reap. I will be more aggressive on Congo, Zambia and Benin republic this year if you ask me.

Will I blog much this? Well, watch this space 

2023 - The Year of Big Bold Moves, 2024 the Quadratic Year?

Numbers do have meaning I think. For me, the years of 3's (1993, 2003, 2013) always seem to go by without any resounding big life milestone. No graduation, no birth, no deaths, no drama.

Such was 2023 except there were big moves. Nigeria has an election. I took on a new work leaving a company I built for nearly 15 years, and entered public service full time.

The year was also built around opportunities for me. A year that my emotional intelligence was tested and here we are in 2024, the year of the 4 decades for me.

One week to my birthday, I checked this blog that I have wanted to updated for months and figured it is good to drop a line or two on here -the only word is GRATITUDE.

The journey has been intense but eventful. In this four decades, I'm most grateful to four categories of people on this journey: My Parents - for without them, the core values and opportunities I have today I many never even smell, I stand on the shoulder of giants; My Family - this include my wife, my siblings and my cousins; they've brought only laughter and joy to my life. They've aided, challenged and driven my progress in life in ways they cannot even imagine. Because of them I'm complete and for this I'm grateful; My Friends - I think I've been blessed with the best group of friends any man can ask for. From primary to secondary to university to even my post-school work life, I've been blessed with good humans who always root for me, stand in the gap for me and give me the best advice. Inclusive of this are my very older aged mentors, my older friends; My Children - Isaac and Isabella have only brought profound sense of responsibility to my life's journey. These two angels have been instrumental to my humanity, they are the reason I do what I do when all lights are off and because of them I'm blessed. 

As I look forward to celebrate next week, I'm conscious of the saying that a Fool at Forty is a Fool Forever, how about a wise men? Does the converse apply? I hope it does. 

2022 - Reset, Redisccovering Me in 2023

​This blog holds sort of a timeline of grown adult life for me. It is a collection of thoughts that date back different epoch of my life, first as a young entrepreneur and budding policy wonk, when I discovered blogging. Those early years were fun, I read and wrote copiously. 

Blogging was an offshoot of a favourite last time, contributing editorially to the slew of online message boards and platforms focused on issues impacting my country of origin: Nigeria, from the Diaspora. I had written severally for the likes of Amebo.com, Dawodu.com, NigeriaVillageSqare.com and iNigeria (then NIA).  It was all about learning, growing and sharing.

In the last few years as business and family building took over. & wrote less and I read less. I sort of missed it, even though long haul travels associated with my work has enabled to creatively cheat on the reading one. But writing became harder amongst all the distractions.

Then 2022 happened…life changed

This pages will be filled up for the better. My intellectual juices flowing. Life has happened and there are bountiful lessons to learn and share. Watch these pages 

2022 Travels to Remember: South Korea and Mombassa top the chart…

2022 Book to Remember: 

This book written by an early European business man seeking fortunes in Nigeria pioneer lumbering sector from the 40s is a must read for anyone who loves Nigeria. It shows dramatically how quickly the country has modernized and businesses improved.  

And oh my photo of the year, gotta be this young man …God bless them all.

2021 - The Year without a Mind of its own

​2021 seem to be a quiet continuation of 2020 it seems. We all agreed that 2020 was postponed because of how the world was shutdown by the pandemic. The crazy 2020 continued waltzing through the next year it seems, as I can’t seem to take hold of something that happened in 2021 that didn’t seem to have started in 2020. The two years seem like conjoined twins for good or for bad.

One distinct difference though: Donald Trump. I mean, who could have imagined the White House can be a whole lot quiet and disciplined. One day, One Trouble guy has ported. Lol. 

2021 has been a good year on the whole. Started with great personal challenges for me, but ending on a good, happy note. What is life without challenges? I faced my greatest personal challenges this year but they only matured me and prepared me for my greatest professional and business triumphs! I’m particularly grateful for good friends and partners, close family members and my children for making tough times seem so less tough- what can I do without you guys?

Health wise..

For me, I will remember 2021 for being the year of COVID tests (I think I’ve logged close to 50 due to my numerous travels, the three trips to Ghana alone logged 12..lol). And also the year I finally caught Malaria after 25 years of dodging the bullet. Ol boy, was it tough. 

Travel wise…

I did more of Africa as I always wanted to do this year. Visited Rwanda and Sudan for the first time and throughly enjoyed it. I ate all kinds of food on this journeys. Will be back in Rwanda in January 2022 and hope to add Mauritius, Madagascar and Cape Verde to my travel path in 2022. 

Best trip gotta be the tour of Egypt especially the Sinai Peninsula during my birthday. I was with long time friends and hosted by the Sheikh of Cairo, Idris Bello. I thoroughly enjoyed the sumptuous food and company of my Egbon, Babafemi Ojudu and Ahmed Alimi as well. Fond memories. 

The most fun local trip was the visit to Yankari Game Reserve and the swim at Wiki Warm springs but the best local trip gotta go to the Calabar-Uyo swing with my young buddies. We even used the canoe to connect Calabar and Oron. OMG! 

Books and Reads..

I enjoyed reading the Early Jewish Wars, quite a bit. Clarified some issues around Christianity for me. The book, Sapiens was also an enlightening read. I only read on planes this year. This was just a matter of convenience for me. But we can do better next year.

2021 was about finishing or completing goals we missed out on in 2020. But I’m equally convinced that many things that we never got around to start in 2020 were also started in 2021 including things that needed to be cleaned out, restarted or re-engineered. For starters, our relationships got that re-engineering bit for good or for bad. Things fell into places. Grateful. 

Hindsight they say is 20/20...and so it was literally

 As 2020 draws to a close, the year couldn't have been so more aptly named. So interesting a year, it was never going to just be one of those quiet years that just happened. It came with a bang, and it is leaving with a bang!

Personally, the year started with a lot of changes and strategic planning for me. I was off to an early start. Downsized at LoftyInc, while hiring a lot at Vertmance. We went all in into the ranch project in February. I remember picking up the phone call to our financiers, and asking for a huge sum and it being approved over a mere phone call and deck. This was our saving grace in that business, so far. 

Then, I hit the road to Tunisia. The only foreign trip up until now in the year. As soon as we took off from Nigeria, we heard the first COVID-19 case was detected in Nigeria. In Tunisia, it was a fun eye opener to a country that could be. Educated, manufacturing giant at the tip of Africa. I enjoyed every bit of it. Engaged the tech ecosystem and visited farms, factories and fun places. As soon as we took off from Tunisia, we saw a news flash that they too discovered their first COVID-19 case. Then 2020 happened.

Very quickly, the world started to shut down. But not until I snuck a quick trip to Yola, the North East's answer to Abuja. Clean and very lovely city, I fell in love with it immediately I landed. COVID-19 seem distant away as we enjoyed the balmy warmth at the banks of River Benue, and the scorching heat as we toured the Nyarko Farm and Agric Export Zone, hardly did we know it was the last normal week in the year. I remembered jetting back into Abuja and everything literally shutting right behind us. And then we went into lockdown.

For us, it meant farming time. Every minute of those next three months were spent tilling, ploughing, herding and haggling with above ground issues. The rainfall was coming, so we took advantage of the lull to farm, farm, farm. It was helpful to be liquid when everyone else lacked funding, so we went in 200%.

The downsize of late 2019, also ensured the business at LoftyInc was better prepared to weather the storm even as we shared the pain and secured some useful win as the lockdown bit harder. As we got back to normal in July, we were set for a rapid fire second half which it has been: without, the travel.

Lessons...

This is what I consider the biggest lesson of 2020- without the expensive travels, our revenue is not worse off. With a phone call and zoom, deals get done a lot faster. We skipped the face to face and still left well off. We are grateful. For the till that got filled, and the hands that gave: thank you.

Human relationships also mattered the most in 2020. People called to give us things we never deserved. Some just called to say hello, that we mattered. We are grateful.

Grateful for Love and Family too, who won't be? Though the storm raged when we got hit by the virus in November, we are grateful to be alive and well. So grateful. For those who checked on us, thank you. To those who prayed for us, may you never be forgotten. 

Underperformance...

A few of those. Fitness wise, could be better. I ate too much and exercised little in 2020. The lockdown feeding of madam did not help matters. For the first time, I failed my annual physical exam in the borderline cholesterol matter, and I agreed to start taking statins. It was a reminder that we are not getting younger. Oh well, the alternative to getting old is being dead. And Ol boy, are we grateful for life!

2020 was also a tough year for reading books. I'm current reading "Sapiens" after struggling to read "The Next Factory of the World" about China and Africa relations in business. I finished that, after 8 months! Phew! The psychological insecurity of the COVID era made reading much harder. Before March, I had finished two books. One, " The Gatekeepers" about USA Chief of Staff was such a pleasure read.

The Wins...

The year is ending up as a memorable one. Lots of wins and some disappointments in the entrepreneurial life. The business cases in farming is taking shape. We are on track to raise a $500k convertible, even as the construction/developer business is maturing with two key wins literally on the last business day and the VC business seem destined for a trajectory of greatness thanks to my friend, the Afropreneur..look at his head below :) Isn't he such a gorgeous guy? Read his blog on how far this awesome head has brought him and us here...we call him the Rain Maker, AKA Hush Uncle, the Connector.

The Losses...

Some got away. We lost some good people. My sister's grandmother in law was the most personal, thankfully. But the world lost some fine human beings in 2020. May their soul rest in Peace. Kobe was a shock. Ajimobi was needless for those of us who shared his progressive politics in Nigeria. Some young ones also flamed out. Mental health was a thing. May God heal our land.

What I'm stoked up the most about? I finally got this Classic! Yeah, it is an addition to the Beetle from last year. But Ol Boy did I always want one. 

Best thing that happened in 2020? Donald Trump Lost! Now my son can get back to loving American Presidents again! 

That is it. What a year! 

Book Review: There was a Country by Chinua Achebe

When I picked up this book, the review from trusted friends (Bookies alike) was not to waste my time. The general opinion was that Chinua Achebe's last work was the worst; the most tribalistic, and rubbish work of literature. One famous friend who is also a journalist actually claimed to have tried to read it and having to throw it into thrash after one chapter! These were trusted opinions by the way, so I had to get over these sentimental misgivings to power my way through the last book of record from the controversial novelist.

The first few chapters actually unfolded excitedly. To the reader it paints a rather rosy picture of a Nigeria pass gone by. If this was the country "that was", then it had to be Utopia. Idyllically Country and Provincial in the first bit, the early years of young Chinua growing up in the home of early modernists in a rapidly modernizing country was that of privilege, joy and thematic conflicts: between religions, languages and cultures. These conflicts were however not the violent and virulent my generation is now used to. It was rather a conflict of the mind, one debated by young Chinua. The reader was then taken on a journey of the early  years of setting up Nigeria's storied institutions of learning -  partly by governments and mostly by parochial orders: churches and mosques, town unions et al.

Indeed, Chinua Achebe was a member of the lucky generation of Nigerians, or so it seemed. Enjoying admission to the then University College, Ibadan he described a period of solid education and outsized opportunities beckoning upon graduation as the young nation displaced foreigners perhaps too quickly and placed young graduates like Chinua in inexplicable luxury. I mean, you get a beach side Villa at Ikoyi as official quarters right after graduation? Movies on Saturdays in the early 60s? Dream on folks. That dream was never meant to last forever!

And forever, it didn't. As Chinua began to grasp the underbelly of the contradictions of a country that had injected children into strategic decision making: from media where Chinua Achebe was, to the military where Nzeogwu resided. This was a key take away for me in this early chapters, as Chinua Achebe waxed on describing how Nigeria's early morning turned into a scary dawn. First it was the coup, next it was the taunts cum reprisal massacre that followed as a precursor to a counter coup that greeted Nigeria's own Nero (Aguyu Ironsi), whom Chinua largely failed to defend as gallantly as one would have expected. But oh, well - this was the least fictional of the excellent work of fiction that riddled Chinua Achebe's abridged recount of Nigeria's political history from 1952 to 1970.

The fiction that flowed from Chinua Achebe's pen first dripped like tales by moonlight, like his claim about cross carpeting in the Western Region, something that is now regarded as the worst form of fictional recount of history of Nigeria ever told. But not a few people still believe it nonetheless, that a zero party election can produce cross-carpeting on House grounds when we are yet to see a party based results of this so called election that split Awo and Zik, Nigeria's East and West regions - until this day. The treatment of this incident by fiction guru, Chinua Achebe set the pace for the rest of the book which was more or less, a recount of the suffering of Uncle Achebe during the Civil War.

The Biafra war recount was gripping given its first person account, and also revealing on many levels. First, the laid back treatment of the declaration of war virtually by Ojukwu by the author and the manner in which it seemed the Eastern intellectuals of the day prepared for this both domestically and internationally was thoroughly amateurish. Did anyone think Nigeria will sign up for a break up without putting up a fight? Did anyone not think through the repercussion of the multi-ethnic Eastern region and the response of the oppressed minority to the majority ambition to free itself away from the only check the minority had on the majority Igbo ethnic group? Kidding me right?

Of course, the author calls for sympathy from readers by describing in details the familiar horrors of war perpetrated by the federal side, while he took away from this sympathy by glossing over similar atrocities by the Ojukwu led military junta. Aside from dismissively describing the loses of Murtala Muhamed as he sought to take Onitsha, he went on to gloss over how Ojukwu ensured alternative views of original 1966 coup plotters - Majors Banjo and Ifeajuna - were stamped out forcefully. Indeed, in a moment of paranoia and extremism they were executed secretly without proper trial when they failed to hold the Mid-West Region. This of course was tell tale signs early in the war that the Colonel that led the East was about his ego alone and not for any righteous cause as he may have led his people on. In Achebe's world of moral relativism, Achuzia was a War Hero, and Benjamin Adekunle was a war monger. Oh well. 

The section that describes Biafran innovation were no doubt an exercise in recounting the capacity of a people under common spell to achieve against all odds. I wouldn't however boil down to any exceptionalism as the author will want his readers to believe, bearing in mind that the same author never held out the exceptional abilities of the Biafran state to withstand a food blockade which he blamed on the wickedness of a new found enemy in Obafemi Awolowo and Gowon his normal target of course. I mean, if someone can make airstrips, tanks and missiles - how hard can growing food be? The author's recount of personal experiences were equally powerful, and one in which he witnessed the likely lynching of a federal soldier was largely glossed over - calling into question the morality of the presentation itself.

One fact that struck me through the book- whether in peace or war, was the extraordinary privilege that someone like Chinua Achebe enjoyed. Official cars, stayed even in war period. Life was from a lens that was far removed from the everyday life of fellow countrymen- whether Nigerian or Biafran. This was the life. 

As his story wore on, I would have been surprised if Chinua Achebe did not admit at least one excess of the Biafran government he worked for; but that came nearly as much in his recount of the Kwale "incidence" where Ojukwu ordered the killing and kidnap of ENI Italy employees at an oil and gas facility- and Chinua Achebe seem to disagree because his international mission on behalf of Biafra lost steam as a result. In it, he admitted that Biafra lost the world when they decided to attack the world; he failed to acknowledge that the same reaction the world had was what Gowon and his field commanders could give when he recounted the so called "atrocities" committed by the Nigerian side, and the "incidences" (his words) fomented by Biafra in a ping pong test of strength in those years.

If any part of Prof Achebe's missive would be part of the Corpus of Tribalism, it has to be the fourth part on which he closed the book. Repeating ideas that one will tease first out at beer parlors than in a serious academic discussion, he discussed how the "democratic Igbo" was so exceptional he historically resisted kings, while ignoring the incorporation of democratic check & balances,  and self restraint in an organized monarchial system in Nigeria's storied empires of Songhai, Oyo and Borno- while the domination of money in the republic Igbo system guaranteed some measure of "vote buying" which cannot exactly be called democratic.

At the risk of getting into some muscle arm contest on which race is superior in Nigeria's over 350 blessed ethnic groups, this part of the book could easily have been skipped by the author instead of contributing to Nigeria's ever enlarging body of disturbingly divisive and ethnocentric literature. The loose use of the "genocide" word - while failing to explain how come the same country that sought to "eliminate" the Igbos elected one as Vice President mere nine years after the end of the fracas while the same vilified Gowon was on exile. Naturally, Achebe's adaptation of the "marginalization" posture that currently dominates the region for which he writes and is from in national engagement discourse, comes across naturally as pedantic, plain and unbacked from purely historical perspectives.

Interestingly, some of the author's diagnosis and path to greatness for Nigeria were still apt and on point. His remedy of gradual evolution of democratic institutions, followed by free press and strong judiciary that will remedy corruption and enforce good governance seem like provenance to the part Nigeria seem to have since embarked on - charitably since 2011, by hook or crook. 

NNPC Reforms and what we should be doing

It is campaign season and of course the opportunists would be out bandying unworkable ideas to feather their nests of opportunism.

How does it make sense to fully privatize a company that accounts for 90% of the revenue of all governments in Nigeria month to month without spelling out a transitive arrangement that will replaced 550-700bn monthly that is shared? How will we meet payroll monthly? Athiefku is just being an opportunist as usual.

Of course , NNPC must be restructured. And here I was sharing ideas...

It can be done with common sense over 3-4 years but with the transitive arrangement at its center. For example the productive assets of NNPC which is basically the PSC and JVs can be moved into NLNG with predictive current cash flows being securitized by a bond that will be sold in international market and deposited in an investigate Trust Fund (invested in even more accreative assets) from which FG and states can draw for 20 years  almost like an annuity.

The hard assets like refineries, storage depots and pipelines built since 1970s but now in bad shape should be concessioned not sold outright to allow the nation keep ownership but swear the asset - including taking advantage of common use rules to reduce inefficiencies of siloed ownership of such infrastructure.

Lastly, unrelated subsidiaries like NNPC Shipping and even downstream player like NNpC Retail (NNPC  has 54 subsidiaries or more) that are doing what private sector are already good at doing should find Strategic Investors with FDI to purchase a third and list the balance  on the stock exchange which can directly inflate the economy and stock exchange as well.

If this plan above is implemented we can add 50-75% to the GDP without losing sleep over salaries and funding for government. But definitely selling NNPC to Intels is a No-No.

Nigeria's 2015-2017 Economic Performance- A Report Card

In March, I was guest of AIT Moneyline Show discussing the Economy Report Card of the Buhari Administration

Nigeria's Faltering Economy & Strategies to Reflate it

Economics is a very funny thing.. and I get the feeling that the team of President Buhari, especially the Osinbajo camp are getting frustrated with the way the situation in Nigeria is going from bad to worse, and their supporters are increasingly jumping ship.

It is true that they've done some common sense clean up, but the seeming addiction of the President's team to law and order, decree or ban approach to economic management have only worsened the situation not made it better. There is a place for law and order, but the economy especially that based on free market principles responds very badly to command and control. Freedom is the hallmark of a free market economy, and the Buhari team have done exactly the opposite of that which has led to the worsening situation.

Let us be clear here...Buhari did not cause the recession, but he could have at least tried to prevent it or at least soften the impact. I dare say the recession was already with us since last year if not for the residual spending of the free dollar rain at the exit stages of the elections. Nigeria has no budget for 2015 and PMB did not implement one. It was as such the highest level of economic and perhaps political malpractice not to come in with an economic plan on day one- and to wait 5 clear months to even have ministers in place. Which takes us to three facts that must underline this long post...

1. Psychology and language matters more than reality. The tone and body language of doom breeds doom. That is why people will be more optimistic and willing to spend when the leader presents a rosy outlook . Our President is always talking about oil price. Of course that is what investors and ordinary citizens will now focus on and will impact their behavior. What the president says matters. Oil was $55 on the day the President was elected, it is $46 today or thereabout. Big deal . It was falling, you knew it- we needed a plan around it to ensure the country was stable not excuses or bad policies like banning everything and "demand management" as the mugu in CBN calls it driving FDI down by 84% and inflation up by 300% even before the grudging acceptance of reality one year late. We have more than oil price going for us. A solid entrepreneurial base, large banking system (if TSA is tweaked), a consumption based economy (which even China will die for) and booming ports/transportation sector. We should promote what is going good in Nigeria. Oil is a poor commodity for the President to tie his emotions and speeches to. Enough already.

2. Velocity of money matters more than availability of money itself. When people trade and money change hands the economy grows. Idling money under TSA banked only at CBN (without a circulation capacity) or crushing trade by truly dumb foreign exchange policies and banning tactics crush the velocity of money and destroys the economy. To limit your intervention to bail outs and the budget funded eight months late is economic malpractice. We needed a stimulus package and an economic team to deliver it outside the inefficient civil service structure since May 30, 2015.

3. There are two sides to a balance sheet. OBJ inherited a poor revenue profile but also had a much smaller civil service with only half of the 700 plus parastatals we have today, which he quickly added to (so in some ways OBJoke created today's problems). Go and look at legislation between 1999 and 2003, and you will see a multiplication of federal agencies. Some needed, some not. This also led to increase in not just payroll but also overhead and cost of keeping up even as his successors perpetuated the reverse Midas touch by ballooning overhead and recurrent expenditure and spurious "capital projects" often directed to service the servicer (civil servants). PMB should have recognized this from day one and focused on taking the public service back to $30/bbl level. Instead we still operate a public service of $125/bbl minus some ghost workers. This ensures less money to drive velocity of funds changing hands vis capital projects, and more Doom.

So the doom cycle feeds itself...there is still room for correction, but we need those in the saddle to first admit we have a problem. We elected a Law and Order Ticket no doubt over the lawless ticket of criminals presented by PDP, but we expect more professional management that hews to the needs of the people - Jobs, Jobs, Jobs.

So here are some free ADVICE for Mr. President, VP and the new team...

1. You can reflate the economy by targeted infrastructure/stimulus  program that employs a bunch of people to rebuild our universities, roads , parks/stadiums and schools for example. But it is useless using the procurement process or the civil service. You need that money in the economy hard and fast- into local sub-contractors. Launch an office called Nigeria Works- out of Aso Rock under a special bill. Deliver the much needed jolt the economy needs. Unfortunately if it were May last year you probably will get a bunch of wads from the debt market but that market is probably closed now due to monetary missteps of the last one year led by the CBN governor you guys have somehow retained . Recommended size of rebuild is 5 trillion naira over 24 months. Use bonds to pay contractors- see what FDR did and copy-paste

2. You can reflate the economy by stop focusing on oil and gas and the impact of reduced price or production. Nigeria is more than oil and be more upbeat promoting the promise of the country. Promote technology investments and manufacturing especially (in designated FTZs/Industrial Parks with constant power guaranteed). Please fire the ComTech minister for good measure , and let's stop mismanaging the sector . There is an idea to use school uniforms alone to revive the textile industries long abandoned and employ tailors. Just do it...stop talking about it.

3. You can reflate the economy by doing the hard job of restructuring the public service and also some divesting from NNPC to bring some private sector sanity to that place. NNPC especially can be used to reflate the stock market which has a lot of impact on private sector mentality. It can be listed/spurn as 4-5 companies organized by business units or 3 integrated companies organized by area around the refineries .

4. Send trapped TSA back to designated top tier banks, who should be allowed to lend a portion of TSA gross deposit with them (30%) through a special small business administration (SBA) type mechanism at concessionary rats of 5%. Track the 5-7 banks so used and enforce the pushing of these funds to people that need them for business. Promote active lending and good practice that partners the banks as well. So may be give 75% of the loan from TSA backing, while the bank uses 25% of its own money. For good measure, have banks tender for the opportunity to participate and thus gain TSA business.

5. Keep pushing on power, it will take time but it is worth it. But be aware of structural defects of the privatization reforms under the prior administration. It may be time for NERC to force consolidation of GENCOs and DISCOs (eliminating the NEBT bottleneck) even as it should look at allowing GenCOs to supply their DisCOs directly instead of going through the grid i.e. break the grid up.

In any case, keep pushing- keep trying. You asked for the job, you got it.

Who shall tell the President? Demons Marauding around the Economy

Another commentator had alerted the world to the danger ahead of Nigeria in her quest for market based economic policies. The demons vary, but one that keeps rearing is head is that which muddles up the policy waters, creating a narrative for a dangerous policy reversal that will leave all on its path destroyed. We can see the seeds in the undulating attitude of Mr. President, a forced convert to the gospel of appropriate pricing of Nigeria's forex regime, in the last 3 months. Mr. President is sending mixed signals and it is dangerous.

First we start with Quotable Quotes on all sides of the FOREX matter from Mr. President.... 

While speaking at an interactive session with Nigerians living in Kenya, President Buhari reiterated his stand on the devaluation of the Naira and strong currency restrictions saying he requires more convincing before agreeing to devalue the Naira. He said a devaluation of the Naira would “kill the Naira, cause higher inflation and hardship for the poor and middle class in Nigeria.” - January 2016 in Kenya

“The central bank has moved to introduce a greater flexibility in our exchange rate policy. These actions are a down payment on our people’s ability to succeed,”  June 16, 2016 (Wall Street Journal Essay) 

"President Muhammadu Buhari says he does not see any benefit  the country could derive from the devaluation of the naira." June 28, 2016 (Ramadan Fast Breaking with Business Community)

Since the experts surrounding Mr. President are yet to convince him, let us help him out with four points that perhaps the "experts" meeting with him can drop behind on a cheat sheet the next time they visit. It is simple:

1. By selling official reserve short, states are short changed on a monthly basis as dollar or forex income from oil is always converted at officially exchange rate to determine what is shared monthly. They cant pay salaries or pensions. People die. People suffer. We are poorer. Osun state for example that received 6 million naira in February could easily have received 4 billion naira, and would still have 1.5 billion naira in hand to pay March salaries. May be the President should listen to the governors and not the financial experts. They know the people are suffering and would keep him convinced.

2. By selling official exchange lower than market price, corruption is encouraged. As people who get it at officially low value will roundtrip- despite the President's threat otherwise. They gain, while state workers suffer because that money should have gone into official pockets not individuals. The profit of the crime is too great not to act on the arbitrage opportunity. Patriotism cannot trump economic common sense for private market actors.

3. By selling official exchange lower than market price, government is encouraging imports of certain items not discouraging it. By also creating certain items as favorite, you can create obverse incentive for those items to be imported even when not needed. Let us have a consistent import policy, of encouraging local production not importation. Higher exchange rate officially almost at par with private market puts all items on near equal footing and will make imports expensive

4. Higher official exchange rate will boost IGR in the short term especially after the slump. Duties is set to go up by 42% even as importation fell 40%. Essentially we can achieve net zero impact on national revenue. Under previous scenario, you will have importation fall due to economic crisis any way, but the IGR will stay low because exchange rate have been kept artificially low by under selling the forex in the official vault relative to those held in private hands.

5. Ultimately the end result is that effective exchange rate is higher for all not lower as the existence of an official selling window underselling forex will put supply pressure on true market which will continue to over price the few forex left or sourced by round tripping. Few will buy at official rate, as we've seen for the past year and the psychology of low rate will be useless to the economic ruin of this reality because forex will be scarce for production, and an implicit cost for market interference will be paid for in distraction, and additional inefficiency of the dual sale window. Good news that BDC may get CBN dollars after all, it may help continue to narrow the gap between the new interbank window and the parallel window which has since collapsed.

Hope it is clearer to PMB now who is an unconvinced convert. Higher exchange rate is not the problem. Lack of infrastructure for production, corruption and obsession with mere figures is the problem. Japan is at 110 or so to USD, still didn't prevent it from being 3rd largest economy in the world.

You're what you produce, not your exchange rate. To help Mr. President further, and the naysayers...especially those that take the patriotic or "we are stuck" strategy of arguing against reality, we remember this talk..

 “those who can afford foreign education for their children can go ahead but Nigeria cannot afford to allocate foreign exchange for those who decide to train their children outside the country. We can’t just afford it. That is the true situation we are in.” - March 5, 2016 on Al Jazeera Interview

This is lose talk. Forex reserve of your country is not just what is held by CBN but what is held by private citizens in their homes and vaults.Hence, while the official reserve is held by the CBN with some foreign banks, or in its vaults- the national reserve is more relevant and that which is outside the control of the Central Bank will continue to determine the market price - which (exchange rate) can be exaggerated as it is now, if the full supply of the CBN is not brought to bear on this real market.

So if they source it from somewhere else, it is still part of the reserve available for import. And all you do is create room for black market by pushing demand into the shadows which creates corruption. The demand for forex - real or imagined- will be met at a certain price point, why then should Nigeria sells its official reserve held in CBN short priced compared to that held by private individuals, and then turn around to complain of lack of revenue:

To explain what the official reserve is:

The reserve is always shared. It is oil money converted monthly to naira. We print naira to back the reserve up. So it is not savings. It is just useful build up for purpose of imports. The only way to stop depletion as such is to reduce imports, which will happen when forex becomes more expensive as it is now under the new policy. If you sell to lowest bidder, then forex is cheap and everyone will import - causing the reserve to deplete. Get is now?

On Fayose and Playing to Herdsmen Gallery

I think a lot of us are  just too young to remember how the civil war started. Violence yields nothing, and when violence is mixed with ethnic and political undertones it has to be a smoldering powder that every educated person must condemn unequivocally. When I watched Governor Fayose of Ekiti state make a fool of himself as usual when he visited Ikole, and then some pen pushers glorify his madness either on the altar of delayed federalism and/or ethnic interest I shook my head.

Fayose made statements like "his state", well he is just a governor (an usurper some of us think) and it is not his state. He has no right to stop economic activities by fiat and even his law if passed will be tested in the courts against the constitution and I can already tell you it will be struck down. If ranching is a solution, then the duty of the governor is to support that industry to inflame passion and call for inter ethnic strife and killing. That is just plain irresponsible . 

Ranching is not a bad idea but won't happen overnight, even as we work to harmonize cattle rearer and farmer positions across Nigeria. The only thing that will come out of Fayose's madness is death, hunger due to unemployment and high cost of beef in OUR state.

As an Ekiti man, and specifically an Ikole man (so this gets home and no need to cry more than the mourner)..this is not protection, this is lunacy. Omo ale Ni Fayose, ridiculing Ekiti people and our hard won brand for intellectualism and common sense. No one plays to the gallery with security. 

The reality on ground is that this issue will only lead to more progrom and death, as Ikole borders huge husbandry states of Kwara and Kogi, and have benefitted economically from being a center of trade and commerce in cattle and yams. What is oncoming is clash and massive unemployment & economic depression for the already "left behind" who barely survive already. The consequences of his misadventure will soon be obvious

PS: People talking about death toll of recent clash between criminal herdsmen and farmers are just plain gullible. We have higher death toll from maternal deaths in our hospital and bad roads cause by corruption and even armed robbery than cattle rustling. The issue is just the right one for ethnic jingoist seeking to undermine Nigeria for their own narrow interest and distract the current government from its war against their looting- Fayose inclusive.

Dangote is winning again...cement, roads and taxes

So for those wondering what Dangote is really up to with that road deal he got, well here it is

1. Bought over 250 yellow machines (or Caterpillar) for his massive refinery, fertilizer , power and pipeline project in Lekki.

Site Plan of Dangote's Plant

2. Don't need to hire an Engineering, Procurement & Construction Contractor, so he partnered with one to create a new West Africa giant..so he found Saipem who was already having issues with the Federal Govt on Oil & Gas local content: win-win

http://www.vanguardngr.com/2015/04/dangote-saipem-seal-joint-venture-agreement-in-central-west-africa/

3. To further vertically integrate his cement empire, why not just do a cement road construction demonstration - more expensive but more durable, and try it on a PPP sort of like basis while not necessarily making crazy money. Call it marketing. Fashola agreed like any economist would. Few tax breaks for free but great road? You kidding me? Even you will take it

Site of Dangote Refinery, Lekki FTZ in 2015

4. After this demonstration, expect Saipem-Dangote E&C to bid for road construction concession based on the demo- using Dangote Cement and more or less annuitizing his current income from cement (like fixed deposit) in form of tolls we will be paying on such roads

Some of the hundreds of Yellow Machines
Dangote bought for the Refinery Project

Please don't call this monopoly. It is just smart business strategy. But some Dangote cement stock.  

While most analyst have raised concerns about glut in the local market, Mr. Dangote definitely have his own ideas about where his cement should be used. The excess capacity building up in Nigeria is going into roads. You read it here first


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Unintended Consequences and Unnecessary Pain

Unintended Consequences

Reading Punch Nigeria today, and one wonders if this subsidy removal policy is not beginning to have unexpected consequences. Punch had a story on consumers taking to public transport and abandoning their fuel guzzlers

Who said public policy cannot be used to shape private behavior? Let the season of waste in the midst of poverty end. Let us build a solid foundation for true economic progress. Our air will even be cleaner and cities more orderly. This fuel subsidy removal policy may have an environmental upside.Citizens now should also demand re-engaging our public transportation needs. They will pay more attention to infrastructure and force politicians to rebuild them. Instead of using fuel-guzzling SUVs fueled by wasteful subsidy to conquer bad roads, it is now cheaper to demand that roads be rebuilt by your politicians so you can use a small car and comfortable public transport.

Unnecessary Pain

The NBS figures didn't have to be this bad. Lots of inaction and bad action. We warned..so to entirely blame the previous administration is not exactly truthful. Many things could have been done to keep the nation away from recession given that the signs were clear and the economy was actually quite resilient. The government could have been assembled earlier, budget assembled quickly, quick action on subsidy taken, central bank policy path could have been different to take away the unproductive profiteering and flight of FDI & remittance due to the huge gap in exchange rage or ensure it doesn't even exist in the first place because of knee jerk reaction and monkey business pronouncements and lastly serious public sector reforms undertaken which by itself can be used to inject life to the economy by paying gratuities and pensions for those getting "packages"

To the right are growth rates depicted by quarter, up until end of last year the economy was resilient, so to blame the previous administration is actually not smart. APC came into office without a stimulus plan when a recession as coming. Obama passed his stimulus plan and package of reforms and spent the entire good will from getting newly elected on that. It paid off. Our own president spent it listening to sai Baba rankadede, and getting deceived by evil servants even to the point of thinking refineries were miraculously revived. This was the problem.

Never too late to fix it..start with changing direction on monetary policy as they've done on subsidy regime.

Nigeria's Persistent Fuel Crisis: Who wanna be a Magician?

The guy is not a magician. He was being honest. He met 4 trillion of debt, mostly owed to cronies that supplied nothing and unverifiable but still legal debt cos NNPC staff were getting settled. The place is literally full of demons. From security guard to GGM, settlement is the culture of NNPC. The alternative was to ignore this and throw caution to the winds..but in the tight knit petroleum industry, it wouldn't matter. NNPC could not default on its "obligations" no matter how poorly contracted. In certain parts of NNPC, it requires 42 different officers/managers to approve an invoice. Just imagine that. Each an opportunity to "collect". 

In the Mean time, the entire asset of the organization was comatose. 30 of 33 depots/pump stations have not received product for years some since the time of Abacha and there was no plan to use them. Only about 720km of 5120km PPMC pipelines was even serviceable. 

(Side note: Even if refineries can work by miracle wand, they supply just half of Nigeria's needs meaning 900,000bbl is required to be supplied to them instead of their designed 450k bbl/day. It will mean that all federation crude will purely go to domestic consumption at under par prices.  This is a technical problem which a senate hearing cannot solve but have real consequences for the revenues of our 37 parasitic federating units. )

Warri-Escravos pipeline that supplied crude to Warri and onward to Kaduna refinery have not been used in 5 years while PPPFM a crony company close to Diezani ripped Nigeria off on shipping contracts to deliver crude to Warri when it was not even producing.  So they deliver, evacuate and charged us for nothing for 3.5 years! PDP continued to import and abandon pipeline because the alternative was more expensive and they can make quick bucks. Imagine using ships to transport crude instead of pipeline. Using coastal jetties and trucking instead of depots connected with pipelines to the hinterlands. Addiction to Importing instead of refining when oil price were at its highest and we could afford to fix our refineries. Instead PDP racked up subsidy bills and allowed cronies to deliver phantom PMS for which they got paid for doing nothing. Others got dubious crude swap contracts that saw expensive crude being exchanged for a basket of products of dubious formula .

In short, All the operational choices were more expensive and equally unreliable. If an importing entity don't secure a ship for an international import cargo of petrol in minutes on a typical day, it takes another 2-3 weeks to get another one of similar spec as the market moves 2-3 weeks in advance and "subjects" get lifted as quickly as they appear (midstream terms - pardon me) . So one mistake or indecision and the entire country is screwed..even one by a starting junior officer acting for a boss on vacation. A simple decision on vessel programming suddenly determines if the entire country is thrown into panic buying and economy goes comatose because they (PDP) took the easy money route to plan our energy economy.  This is the country Obasanjo and PDP gave us..It started under him and he created the monster - to sponsor elections and win by all means. Lets be honest. 

Now the kicker..

And those guys have the money which translates into power to sabotage noble efforts to even fix this mess whose scope and magnitude you can't even begin to imagine. 

In reality, this long problem have an not so easy fix (thanks to union). Break up NNPC, spin off the business units and assets to private sector investors, et al. But even that requires time. Cleaning up the books and assets!

Another not so easy fix for the queues was to throw open the sea borders and allow anyone bring in fuel and sell at any price they wish. Similar to Kenya where they don't produce a drop of crude yet have no single line for petrol. Let's even make it temporary and remove duties to lower end user price . Make it the only product you can import for 18 months without duties until the refineries start working? But that was not an easy pill for Aso Rock Villa. The mentality of Petrol being the rights of Nigerians even if they have to die in scarcity and want persists. 

Now are you the magician? Solve this problem!

A country of Minors

I said before, and I repeat that Nigeria is a country that major in Minors; but I'm beginning to think we are also minors. Minors throw tantrum, they blame others, they can't make decisions and follow throw. Minors are children, they're not matured. They feel helpless. Here are four reasons why I think we are exhibiting Advance Minors Syndrome (AMS). Think of it:

1. Ogbeni is to blame for not being able to pay salaries for borrowing when the FG insist on selling its dollar to Dangote for 197 naira indeed of 340, reducing Osun's take from 3.3bn to 1.7bn? Ok , Osun had 1.695 bn worth of debt, but at least 1.6bn will remain if we are not playing Ostrich with the Forex to pay salaries and fuel his helicopter 😂

Some of you are crying about the subsidy for the rich kids Vis CBN employment. The biggest subsidy is the undersold naira given to the richest among us. Yet some say we've been blowing grammar. Ok now. Complex as the issue may be, Nigerians sweat the small stuff while the big elephant is ignored.

2. Ocholi's driver is to blame for overspeeding, but who is to blame for the massive craters that destroyed the tires on Kaduna-Abuja road? The FRSC guy gave a presentation and then put fixing the bad road as the last item when Fashola was seating in the room. 9 months after swearing in, we are deceiving ourselves!

3. Vandals are to blame for power outage and system collapse , when we are yet to point to exactly which installation was vandalized? Truth was we celebrate misinformation.  We told them when celebration ensued  late last year that the combination of weather and rains is making their day. Now that the heat is up, and our under invested transmission system is collapsing in response, they're blaming unnamed vandals. Who is deceiving who?

What happened to just being truthful and actioning a plan to decentralize the transmission system in 9-18 months while we build 100 MW (all sources welcomed) in every state? This is what we promised, lets do it!

4. Lastly, we've blamed the petrol scarcity that started before the strikes on the unions? Only in Nigeria! Now that we are 10 days after the strikes and the queues are refusing to disappear how about we admit we made a grave error in not moving fast enough to reform the sector? How about we look at the very premise of price control (when petrol prices are at historic lows) and explore if this is smart policy or dumb policy?

Oh no! Too hard! A nation of minors.