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Wednesday, October 31, 2012
Saturday, October 13, 2012
Obama's Definition Mistake, and a Simple Retort
OK...the Presidential debates have begun. The Veep's was more interesting if you ask me. VP Biden had guts to call out GOP hypocrisy on the debt, on Stimulus and on Iran/Syria/Libya. Nothing works magically than delving the other side an hypocrisy (or inconsistency) blow. That is exactly what Prez Obama failed to do the first time. No GM, no 47% - all of the very core of Mitt Romney's inconsistencies and hypocrisy. The guy discovered Middle Class true religion overnight and Obama let him get away with it!
I personally always thought Obama had a less than stellar summer even though some pundits thought otherwise. When he went about defining Mitt Romney with millions of dollars and precious campaign time, he did it with a very pastel and faint brush. Taxes, Bain and Cayman Islands do ring a bell with those at the middle and lower class, but independents come from all economic classes.
The strongest argument against Mitt Romney is now what Obama and Biden are having to make at the closing hour: that the guy will say anything to win, that he is inconsistent and is playing to pull a fast one on both his base and the American people. It is the flip flopper, etch-the-sketch argument and can permanently damage any candidate. If this job had been done in the summer, Obama like Biden can easily laugh his way through the debates and turn to the guy saying: "There he goes with the etch the sketch again!"
Another shallow faux pas argument of the Mitt that his lack of details on taxes was because he wants to work bipartisan need to be dinged. You don't outsource the presidency to congress; leaders take responsibility. We need details and need no tax-hideout tactics which Mitt is very good at with his hidden taxes and Cayman accounts. And by the way, if you want to talk about our taxes where are your returns?
Lastly, the Obama campaign has been spectacularly inept in countering Mitt Romney's closing argument (granted it shifted...from the convention argument of "are you better off today than 4 years ago?") of "Why will the next four be different than the last four?" The answer is blowing in the wind! In the last four, the mess created by the used car sales man party was being cleaned up. Now the economy is set to roar back after four years of putting a floor under the mess, and successful progressive policies. Coming off 4 stabilizing years, the next four will be better. Now is not the time to go back to creating a mess.
Ultimately, in the Townhall Obama must not only variously call Romney a flopper and fipper, he must also make it clear that voting for Republicans is a vote for recession in the next 4-8 years. Just say it; that is what people want to hear. Make it stark. Their policies of no regulation, shallow recoveries based on disappearing tax cuts and rising deficits, and trade agreement giveaways do lead to recession. C'est Finis.
I personally always thought Obama had a less than stellar summer even though some pundits thought otherwise. When he went about defining Mitt Romney with millions of dollars and precious campaign time, he did it with a very pastel and faint brush. Taxes, Bain and Cayman Islands do ring a bell with those at the middle and lower class, but independents come from all economic classes.
The strongest argument against Mitt Romney is now what Obama and Biden are having to make at the closing hour: that the guy will say anything to win, that he is inconsistent and is playing to pull a fast one on both his base and the American people. It is the flip flopper, etch-the-sketch argument and can permanently damage any candidate. If this job had been done in the summer, Obama like Biden can easily laugh his way through the debates and turn to the guy saying: "There he goes with the etch the sketch again!"
Another shallow faux pas argument of the Mitt that his lack of details on taxes was because he wants to work bipartisan need to be dinged. You don't outsource the presidency to congress; leaders take responsibility. We need details and need no tax-hideout tactics which Mitt is very good at with his hidden taxes and Cayman accounts. And by the way, if you want to talk about our taxes where are your returns?
Lastly, the Obama campaign has been spectacularly inept in countering Mitt Romney's closing argument (granted it shifted...from the convention argument of "are you better off today than 4 years ago?") of "Why will the next four be different than the last four?" The answer is blowing in the wind! In the last four, the mess created by the used car sales man party was being cleaned up. Now the economy is set to roar back after four years of putting a floor under the mess, and successful progressive policies. Coming off 4 stabilizing years, the next four will be better. Now is not the time to go back to creating a mess.
Ultimately, in the Townhall Obama must not only variously call Romney a flopper and fipper, he must also make it clear that voting for Republicans is a vote for recession in the next 4-8 years. Just say it; that is what people want to hear. Make it stark. Their policies of no regulation, shallow recoveries based on disappearing tax cuts and rising deficits, and trade agreement giveaways do lead to recession. C'est Finis.
Saturday, September 08, 2012
It will come down to 4 States...and why Unemployment won't matter
Don't forget that map up there. It will come down to Iowa, Ohio, Florida and Virginia. If "Myth Robme" loses one, that is it. Right now, once one factors historic trends, presence of Hispanics, Labor organizers, Minority & Women votes, the other so called Swing States are not really swing. They just have a bunch of procastinators with same slight of hand year in, year out. The 4 real purple states from our analysis based on their tendency to switch back and forth between the parties even in up years for the party in favor were as such identified.
It is very unlikely Nevada, Colorado, Winsconsin, New Hampshire and Michigan or Penn will vote GOP, in as much as it is unlikely that Missouri, Indian, North Carolina or Arizona will ever go to the Dems. Short of economic disaster of cataclysmic proportion or some huge major scandal by Mitt, these scenarios will never play out. If they do, all bets are off!
This essentially leaves us with these four hard fought states: tells you why Obama is suing in Ohio and Iowa is only his constant trail. Indeed, Romney has a big task before him to snatch all four of these battle grounds, but his chances are more decent than you think. If Obama is not solid in Michigan and Wisconsin then you can assume he just lost Iowa and the rest of the four. For Obama as such, an Auto-Osama strategy in the Mid-West to blanker Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Iowa makes sense especially since his team is headquartered in centered Illinois. In the end, it may be this home court advantage that carries Team Obama across the line. Time will tell.
And here is something else you need to know about the much vaunted unemployment numbers: it doesn't matter what it is nationally, it matters what it is locally. And here are the numbers in these 4 states:
- Iowa - 5.3%
- Ohio- 7.2%
- Virginia- 5.9%
- Florida - 8.3%
This is all compared to the national average of 8.1%. Clearly Iowa, Ohio and Virginia are doing a whole lot better; and herein lies why the President will win regardless of how close it gets. We are watching.
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