Saturday, September 08, 2012

It will come down to 4 States...and why Unemployment won't matter

Don't forget that map up there. It will come down to Iowa, Ohio, Florida and Virginia. If "Myth Robme" loses one, that is it. Right now, once one factors historic trends, presence of Hispanics, Labor organizers, Minority & Women votes, the other so called Swing States are not really swing. They just have a bunch of procastinators with same slight of hand year in, year out. The 4 real purple states from our analysis based on their tendency to switch back and forth between the parties even in up years for the party in favor were as such identified.

It is very unlikely Nevada, Colorado, Winsconsin, New Hampshire and Michigan or Penn will vote GOP, in as much as it is unlikely that Missouri, Indian, North Carolina or Arizona will ever go to the Dems. Short of economic disaster of cataclysmic proportion or some huge major scandal by Mitt, these scenarios will never play out. If they do, all bets are off!

This essentially leaves us with these four hard fought states: tells you why Obama is suing in Ohio and Iowa is only his constant trail. Indeed, Romney has a big task before him to snatch all four of these battle grounds, but his chances are more decent than you think. If Obama is not solid in Michigan and Wisconsin then you can assume he just lost Iowa and the rest of the four. For Obama as such, an Auto-Osama strategy in the Mid-West to blanker Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Iowa makes sense especially since his team is headquartered in centered Illinois. In the end, it may be this home court advantage that carries Team Obama across the line. Time will tell.

And here is something else you need to know about the much vaunted unemployment numbers: it doesn't matter what it is nationally, it matters what it is locally. And here are the numbers in these 4 states:

  • Iowa - 5.3%
  • Ohio- 7.2%
  • Virginia- 5.9%
  • Florida - 8.3%

This is all compared to the national average of 8.1%. Clearly Iowa, Ohio and Virginia are doing a whole lot better; and herein lies why the President will win regardless of how close it gets. We are watching.


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