Wednesday, April 20, 2011

Post-Election Analysis

2011 elections will be remembered as a watershed moment for the followings reasons:

- Even though voting might have been free and fair, the collation of election results have been contrived with irregularities. Figure analysis from some states, GEJ strongholds, basically do not make sense. While I suspect the President won, the vote was probably closer and might have tipped the race into a run off. Ambassador Campbell did a better analysis here. Truth sometimes can be uncomfortable. Professor Aluko, also agrees.  However, I have no doubts that the winner won the is the margin that is suspect. 

- For the first time, a President carried 24 states restricted to every region except the North East and North West. This indeed is the first time that these two regions have not voted for a winning Presidential ticket in Nigeria's history. Basically, we have an alliance of North-South Minorities with two other major ethnic groups ( a National Conference of Ethnic Minorities towards devolution of power from the center to the states now a real political possibility?)

- For the first time, nearly one-third of Nigeria's states will not be having governorship elections (Breaking News! Appeals Court stops elections indeed in 5 additional states!). Basically, Nigeria now have off cycle elections holding in some states. This increases the possibility of diversity of parties at this level, and encourages federalism and devolution as these parties tend to have a mind of their own (less centralization? less march step elections like zombies of Abuja? increased possibility of off year loss for the ruling party?)

- For the first time, a single party will not have control of two thirds of the Senate, and may only squeak by with a thin majority in the House of Reps. More diversity and decreased representation of the ruling party will mean more checks and balances, and a higher possibility programs that seeks devolution (e.g. rebalancing of federal allocations to favor states, and/or state police will get better and fairer hearing in the legislature. ). That is assuming of course we don't start seeing opposition defections

Now the question is, will this 4 year alliance between West & East (for the first time in Nigeria's history) and the ethnic minorities of the North & South result in fundamental restructuring of the polity? of course, that will depend on if the man in Aso Rock indeed have the balls to implement such radical program. He is not beholden to the primary unit that used to oppose this direction under a different dispensation, so he is free to act. 

But can he? Time will tell. Will Goodluck Jonathan bell the cat or will his supporters be disappointed in 4 years with a fundamentally unchanged political landscape and still no electricity and good roads? 

Sunday, April 17, 2011

Nigeria Presidential Elections Results..LIVE Analysis as they come in


With 44% of registered votes, being statistically equal  to the average turn out reporting, Jonathan convincingly leads polls with 59% of votes..and there is no way Buhari can make up for this deficit and he is therefore projected to win as at 2.00 PM CST. Congratulations Mr. we have a nation to govern.

With 80% of states reporting, and 44% of registered voters 2.00 PM CST

Click to Enlarge Chart!

Old Notes & Analysis:

6.00 Some results from early states have begun to drip in..some few unusual figures noticed and analysis follows. Rig alert warnings will be inserted in results, based on projections and analysis of pure raw figures. Figures are cross checked with independent sources and have not been confirmed by INEC.

8.00 Results in Abia is very suspect given the gap. It appears PDP will use the South East and South-South to build unholy advantages to counteract their inability to manipulate northern results. This appears to be the hidden game plan perfected since last week's National Assembly Elections. The 80% turnout also recorded in Abia state as opposed to the national average of 41% so far, is also very suspect. 

10.00 Trend has  been turnouts at 40% level of registered voters. This is low. Indeed, the South West & Edo/Kogi/Kwara region have been experiencing 30% turn out level, perhaps due to the dominant ACN party not fielding a strong presidential candidate and the fact that most South Westerners are essentially voting split ticket. This may be good and bad news for Goodluck Jonathan. It is definitely bad news for PDP in the upcoming elections for Governors upper Tuesday.  The higher than usual turnout in the South East is definitely indicating some manipulations going on. 

12.00 GEJ leads with about 2 million votes with the major population centers of Kano and Lagos (and other SW states) already reporting. Buhari will have to make up for votes with massive wins in Kaduna, Katsina, Niger, Zamfara and Kebbi (the remaining states of the NW- with the most  registered voters). Since SW has the second number of registered voters, and GEJ won here impressively, NW provides Buhari the only answer to the 2 million vote gap...before we head East. ANPP Shekarau can be the spoiler for Buhari in this region.

On heading East of Nigeria..splitting the nation into two (top to bottom), GEJ is sure to earn massive wins with most advantage coming from Delta, Rivers, Anambra, Cross Rivers and Bayelsa states. The first three being high population areas, where the opposition has little or no presence. Only Ribadu can be a petty spoiler in this region for Goodluck Jonathan. Indeed, Buhari will need to answer to respectable victories in the North East- failing which will mean he can kiss the presidency goodbye the third and last time. Ribadu can be the spoiler for Buhari in this region.

Still too EARLY to call as at 12PM CST on 04-17-2011. 

12.30 We can also confidently announce that based on the trend so far, it is unlikely the second requirement of 25% in 24 states will not be met by eventual winner. Hence, elections WILL NOT go to second round.

Some Political Videos from Nigeria...

Yes, of my favorite legislator now out of our Legislative Hall due to his loss last week..his grammar is of cataclysmic proportions! lol

and yes of PDP rigging in River State elections, last week

From deep investigations, the Polling Unit is 32/12/4/008 - Where 32 stands for Rivers State, 12 stands for Gokana LGA, 4 stands for the ward (B-Dere) and 008 stands for the Polling unit, with latitude4.673696 and longitude7.269785. The PU is a building located at Gio-Gon Boobana Lebe square, B-Dere, about 13 Kilometers South-East of Port-Harcourt.
- Prof Bolaji Aluko --------------

The woman in question (if indeed her name is "Ms. Barivure, a staff of Rivers State University of Science and Technology, Port Harcourt" ) was quite busy using her thumb as if she was in a factory; the woman in scarlet (if her name is indeed "Baridi Naleloo, PDP women leader for Ward 4B-Dere and a staff of Gokana local government, working for Mr. Victor Giadom, chairman of the council and a cousin of Hon. Magnus Abe" ) was watching out for any disturbances to their nefarious activities; while some young men floated in and out of the picture. Madame Baridi even almost slapped one of the young men!
When shall we stop deceiving ourselves?

Sunday, April 10, 2011

PDP set to win Simple National Assembly Majority, Governorship too- ACN Tsunami

PDP winning 27 of 50 contests declared..set to claim 55-60 seats in the Senate (with 109 seats at stake) by my projections. Their demise was much exaggerated. Even though this is far less than the current 83 members of PDP in the senate, CPC, ANPP & APGA thoroughly underperformed in the just concluded NASS elections. ACN & LP outperformed expectations. ACN net gain from 4 seats to 18 on conclusion of ALL races is being projected.

Very slim chances PDP will lose House of Rep even though they are faring worse than in the Senate. Governorship?? Any takers? Looking like 18-20 seats for PDP. Oyo and Ogun to flip to ACN camp to bring total to 6. Bayelsa to flip to LP to bring total to 2. ANPP to retain one governorship, and CPC may gain 7 at best. Given their current under performance, I bet they get only 5.


this is